Speculate Research Articles

The Terminator in the goldfields: speculative affects in an extractive frontier in Colombia

AbstractThis article analyses the relationships among speculative rumour, everyday storytelling, and financial speculation that impact small‐scale gold mining towns in Colombia. By following the stories surrounding the visit of Arnold Schwarzenegger to Marmato, a mining town in central Colombia, and its consequences, I explore how people speculate about such ‘speculative’ visits so as to reframe the events as part of wider colonial histories. I aim to comprehend the affective constellation of lives criss‐crossed by financial speculation and the political openings created by rumour, storytelling, and fabulation. I argue that people locate the Schwarzenegger visit as part of a crisis‐ridden history that counters the narratives of modern and responsible mining. The argument contributes to the conceptualization of speculation in anthropology, as well as to questions of history, temporality, and politics of extractive frontiers. The article is based on ethnographic fieldwork carried out between 2016 and 2019 in the central Andes of Colombia and with governmental and corporate representatives.

Stock market development: building a risk society since 1688

ABSTRACT Created by speculators in Amsterdam in 1602, and unstable ever since, stock markets have become central to economies globally, despite being recognised as a significant contributor to today’s risk society. History exposes questionable reasons for the stock market’s rise and reveals reversion to a more productive economic framework to be a way of reducing societal risk. The stock market’s spontaneous development by opportunists in London following the 1688 ‘Glorious Revolution’ spread a non-essential, localised, and speculative market to the international political economy. This precipitated London’s first Big Bang: the privatisation of the Bank of England and stock market deregulation, followed by the South Sea Bubble within thirty years. Economists subsequently embedded the market in economic theory. Keynes’ re-definition of ‘investment’ to include share trading began an ontological drift that made stock markets a hallmark of capitalism. Unlike Knight, Keynes’ concern was share-trading risk, and the uncertainty of the unknown future remains an unresolved challenge for risk analysts, speculators, and regulators, their conflicting goals militating against regulation and stability. Re-building the successful capitalist framework that was abandoned as share markets attracted unjustifiable support, remains a viable alternative to continuing centuries of efforts to manage share-trading risks and the uncertainty of an unknowable future.

Drivers and drags of speculative land developments in a prospective mining landscape, Ghana

This study investigated the drivers and trends of land developments in Newmont Ahafo North Project area. We analysed Landsat imagery to determine land use and cover changes from 1990 to 2021, utilizing a supervised classification method and data from a sample of 200 stakeholders through structured interviews in five project communities. The interrelation of factors influencing land developments in the area was examined using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) model. The results demonstrated a substantial decline in cropland and bareland from 45 % and 38 % to 17 % and 21 %, respectively, with corresponding increases in the built-up and vegetation covers over the period. The pending mining project induced significant speculative developments affecting agriculture and native vegetation. Long mineral exploration, unemployment and poverty, non-compliance and enforcement of mining laws, inadequate compensation, and the compensation experience of farmers drove speculative developments in the mining landscape. The mines declared a mining area without prompt compensation and economically constrained poor locals. This generated contention between the mine and the affected community, culminating in costly expenditure and frustration of the project's timelines. The study underscores the need to rigorously enforce the mining land access legislation and review provisions and application of mining laws on speculative development to curb contestations.

Sosyal Medyada Kripto Para: Coin Piyasasına Yönelik Dijital Söylemin Analizi

This study delves into the dynamic landscape of public sentiment surrounding cryptocurrency through a comprehensive social media discourse analysis. Employing the Python Selenium library, data from 1000 public profiles across major platforms—X, Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn—were systematically collected. Using advanced text-mining techniques in R Studio, sentiment analysis was conducted with the ‘Syuzhet’ package and word frequency analysis via the ‘tm’ package. The results unveiled a nuanced emotional landscape characterized by dominant sentiments of anticipation and positivity, interwoven with expressions of negativity, notably anger, and loss. Word frequency analysis highlighted vital themes such as established cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), blockchain technology, and practical and financial aspects of cryptocurrency usage. The study illuminated technical interest, financial speculation, and reactions to regulatory and economic developments. Offering insights crucial for stakeholders, including investors and policymakers, this research contributes to the academic understanding of public sentiment, emphasizing the volatile nature of crypto-currency markets and the transformative potential of blockchain technology and calls for ongoing monitoring of public sentiment to inform policy, investment, and technological innovation in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Speculative land grabs and Chinese investment: Cambodia’s evolving regime of dispossession

ABSTRACT This article uses the concept of ‘regimes of dispossession’ to explore how processes of land dispossession are evolving in Cambodia. Focusing on Preah Sihanouk province, which has received an influx of capital from China, we show empirically how non-productive and speculative land uses are thriving, resulting in frenzied and chaotic patterns of land grabbing. Our findings suggest a new phase in the recursive relationship between land control and the Cambodian state. Land previously occupied and farmed by rural villages is now being re-classified and re-packaged for private and non-productive purposes like real estate, tourism, and industrial investment that remain largely speculative, as international capital meets predatory state logics. We thus draw attention to how regimes of dispossession operate at a range of scales to shape how land is valued and grabbed, inviting comparative analysis between countries, particularly in the context of high levels of Chinese investment in the global south.

Land-grabbing mafias and dispossession in the Brazilian Amazon: rural–urban land speculation and deforestation in the Santarém region

ABSTRACT This article explores the ways that illegal land grabbing has taken place in contemporary Brazil since 2003. The findings suggest that much more attention needs to be paid to the various forms of violent illegalities behind the creation of land control, in both urban and rural contexts. The role of land mafias as a key political-economic sector creating capital through land speculation should be investigated further, as it seems to matter even more than de jure land rights. The article studies how, where, and why land mafias – often an amalgamation of rural elites, police, and governmental and judicial powerholders – have surged. It uses longitudinal ethnography to explore the widespread expulsion of people from their land in the Brazilian Amazon after the 2003 installation of a Cargill soybean export mill. This has led to the radical transformation of vast forest and urban areas, destroying the lives of humans and other-than-humans.

Modelling the theory of planned behaviour to evaluate the investment intention of generation Z in the speculative market: stocks, Forex and cryptocurrencies

PurposeThe current research takes a closer look at the investment intention of Generation Z and its relation to investing in a speculative market. The study applies the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) to understand the dominant factors leading to Generation Z investment decisions in speculative markets. The main objective is to identify whether these decisions are learnt decisions or herd behaviours.Design/methodology/approachStructural equation modelling is used to evaluate the research model, and examine the mediation effect of financial literacy using bootstrapping in AMOS software. Information was gathered from 271 students studying at the University of Technology and Applied Sciences. The questionnaire used for the survey was adapted from previous related studies examining the TPB.FindingsThe findings show financial literacy and behavioural outcome (attitude) are key components associated with investment intention. Motivation to comply (subjective norm) affects the intention to invest if mediated by financial literacy. The subjective norm has no bearing on the intention to invest in a speculative market. This implies social peers have no bearing on their intention to invest unless mediated by financial literacy.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of the study is that the group from which the sample is drawn consists of all students at a state-funded university who receive stipends. This limits the applicability of related findings. Furthermore, the variables have dynamic properties, which implies their impacts may vary over time.Practical implicationsGeneration Z comprises a large number of small investors who can make a significant difference to the overall economic trends of the country. The digital world, which is time- and space-infinite, is shaping the next generation. It is only possible to reach and sway their opinions by conducting extensive behavioural science research.Social implicationsAcademic institutions ought to be viewed as a resource for conducting additional in-depth research on a variety of subjects to assist and shape the current generation for a better future.Originality/valueAlthough the TPB has been used by many researchers to explore the behavioural intention of Generation Z, very few have used financial literacy as a perceived behaviour control to study its direct and indirect effects on behaviour intention.

Nigeria Exchange Rate: Towards Nigeria’s Exchange Rate Convergence to Pre-Buhari Years

This paper explores the trajectory of Nigeria’s exchange rate policies, examining their evolution and impacts on the Naira’s value. From the fixed exchange rate era to the recent Unified Exchange Rate System, the study dissects historical shifts and their repercussions on the economy. The Nigerian exchange rate regime has gone through different eras from 1970s till date. Various factors necessitated the need for exchange rate policy changes; however, the result of the policy changes have over the years been eroded and its value has been on a continuous decline. Key factors contributing to the Naira’s persistent decline, including import dependency, reduced oil production, and inflation, are scrutinized. The role of currency speculation and the impact of government policies are also analyzed. The paper recommends short-term measures, such as adjusting exchange rate policies and lifting import restrictions, and long-term solutions, including infrastructure development and sectoral growth. The government should monitor the behavior of the exchange rate market closely and ensure interventions using both fiscal and monetary policies are implemented to fortify Nigeria’s economic resilience and counter the continuous depreciation of the Naira. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Exchange rate regime, globalization, fiscal policy.

Restoring Nigeria’s Exchange Rate to the Goodluck Jonathan’s Era for Economic Recovery and Growth

This paper analyzes the factors contributing to Nigeria's current exchange rate challenges, particularly comparing the economic performance during the administrations of Presidents Goodluck Jonathan, Muhammadu Buhari, and Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It also looks into the overall state of the economy and strategies to restore Nigeria’s exchange rate to pre-Buhari levels. Key issues discussed include the decline in the Naira's value, rising inflation, and the challenges faced by different sectors. The research underscores the adverse effects on citizens, especially the poor, and emphasizes the need for urgent government intervention. The recommendations suggested encompasses measures to boost foreign exchange supply, manage demand, and enhance economic stability. Some of them includes promoting non-oil exports, addressing political stability concerns, managing inflation, and implementing policies to discourage currency speculation. Keywords: Balance of payments, Exchange rate, Fiscal policy

DESTRUKTIVNI PROCESI PRIVATIZACIJE – EKONOMSKI I SOCIJALNI SUNOVRAT

In the world economy the historical conflict between labor and capital is intensifying in the process of the dominance of speculative financial capital. The rise of unemployment in the new global crisis leads to the spread of fear for the existence of the masses. There is a general decline in the share of employees' income in the national income, along with a real decline in salaries and wages. The functioning of globalized capitalism and the creation of the precariat are investigated. The aggravation of the conflict between labor and large speculative capital is the path to a permanent crisis. The relationship between private capital, profit and the welfare state are the basis of new crises in capitalism. A critical finding of the process of privatization and its destructive action in society is needed. A special part of the paper refers to the creation of a dependent and indebted economy, along with the discovery of the mechanism of creation of the debt burden. Finally, it investigates where modern economies and society have led to the devastating concept of neoliberalism, privatization and the separation of labor from capital and the results of development. Key words: economy, privatization, capital, debt economy.

Agricultural market information: How much and who is willing to pay for it?

AbstractAccess to an agricultural market information system (AMIS) is essential to reduce farmers' risk from market speculation related to information asymmetry. However, AMIS's sustainability depends on the users' needs and willingness to pay (WTP) for market information. This paper explores the WTP for market information among market‐oriented farmers, as well as its determinants. Data were collected through a structured survey with 479 farmers. A contingent dichotomous choice dual boundary estimation is used to measure WTP and a logistic regression is used to ascertain the main determinants of the stated WTP. Experienced losses, access to market information, use of non‐virtual means of information, and degree of farm specialization are the main determinants of the WTP. These findings are useful for establishing a feasible AMIS, and designing its services according to the characteristics, needs, capacities and preferences of the identified potential users.

The Underpricing Phenomenon in Initial Public Offerings is Explained by the Greed of Financial Speculators

The Underpricing Phenomenon in Initial Public Offerings is Explained by the Greed of Financial Speculators

Speculative Geographies and the Horizons of Performance Studies

This essay examines performance in relation to speculative geographies, a term suggesting the search for and/or creation of worlds at once underdetermined and subject to the imagination. These endeavors might be utopic in the sense of envisioning new social formations or dystopic in the sense of connoting the effects of resource extraction and financial speculation. Building on a speculative geography called the Chinese Atlantic (based on a book of that name), the essay proceeds to elaborate Chinese transnational circulations in the Nordic region with an emphasis on the Arctic. In this vein, the Chinese Arctic is offered as another speculative geography that brings into focus emergent relationalities: between individuals, between nation-states, between human and non-human actants. These relationalities create the potential for social transformation at various scales with both life affirming and life negating effects.Divided into six parts, the essay provides a survey on which to scaffold future research. The first part explains the genealogy of the analytical frame it offers and indicates how the writing in terms of both style and content is meant to function. The second situates speculative geographies in relation to selected writings on utopias. The third highlights selected performances that might serve as an antecedent to a Chinese Arctic paradigm. The fourth continues this move with an emphasis on Chinese investment in the energy and transportation sectors of Nordic countries as well as some of the soft power moves to support these efforts. The fifth section discusses the implications of speculative geographies as hyperobjects. The conclusion returns to events that generated the article and the implications for utopic thinking.

The Value-Creation Role Of Accessibility Through the Critical Realism Method: Istanbul Bus Rapid Transit System

Public investments in "mass transit systems" provide an equal right of accessibility economic and social opportunities for everyone. Concurrently, they generate an increase in land value both along the mass transit line and within the accessible area of the stations. This article focuses on the socio-economic and spatial effects of the increased land value resulting from the accessibility created by the mass transit system. By reviewing world wide case studies and practices, it examines these causal processes within the framework of the Critical Realism Method using the example of the Istanbul Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) System. As a result of the Extensive Analysis, an analytical method of the Critical Realism Method, it was observed that the rate of land value increase in the Istanbul BRT System was 28% and the rate of land value increase at all stations along the line varied between 20% and 280%. In the Intensive Analysis, it was observed that the increase in land value at selected stations varied depending on the proximity of the station to Istanbul's Central Business District, new incoming land use types, plan changes made by the public, the presence of vacant lands that would enable land speculation, and the presence of large projects around the station. This article provides insights which explains that “the change in land value resulting from accessibility” does not cause the same magnitude of value increase at every station along the line and does not create the same socio-economic and spatial impact at every station. It presents an empirically tested study by comparing the accessibility created by the Istanbul BRT System before and after its implementation.

A future already past?

The article argues that blockchain-based games should be conceptualized as an emerging social practice that attracts financial speculators under the guise of online games. The article first outlines the blockchain-gaming discourse, which promises ownership and benefits to players, while it encourages financiers and publishers to exploit players. The article presents the performative discourse of blockchain advocates as well as the counterarguments presented by journalist, players, and developers, in order to demonstrate that arguments against cryptogaming are not anticapitalist and politicized, but mostly based on common sense. Then, the article investigates game studies concepts for their capacity to further explicate cryptogames, and finds that neither gamification nor playbor are completely fitting. Instead, the article turns to the game research fundamentals of Huizinga and Caillois to cast blockchain gaming in a new light. From this perspective, games like CryptoKitties and Axie Infinity emerge as nested activities that can be approached as play of financial speculation, with the latter approach being significantly privileged in existing games.

Who Cashed the Rent Gap? An Alternative Narration of a Shantytown Renovation Project in Nanjing, China

AbstractDespite research on shantytown redevelopment highlighting socio‐spatial exclusion, the viewpoint frequently disseminated through social media depicts it as a massive wealth‐creation movement in China. This paper intends to provide evidence that evicted residents of a shantytown in Nanjing, China, share a common identity with the encroaching gentrifiers – the housing class. By shaping the housing class, an increasing number of urban residents become micro‐agents of housing financialization, allowing the rent gap to be frequently opened even without producing a ‘higher and better’ space. This enables capital to circulate and accumulate within a broader temporal and spatial scope. However, both the class imagination of the housing class and the financial speculation in the housing market are based on the expectation of continuous price growth. This is unsustainable and leaves the real housing needs out of the housing market, which is detrimental to housing equity.

Titling in the Ruins

Abstract Palestinian Authority (PA) land titling began in 2005 as a means of creating property and sovereignty. Titling projects are extending government control over Palestinians, but they cannot secure their lands from Israeli state and private power. This article is an ethnography of Palestinian land titling, focusing on the specific problems that fraudulent land transfers to Israeli settlers create for such property-making efforts. It argues that for Palestinian administrators and surveyors, the certainty of Israeli colonization reduces progress to a challenge of speed and gives rise to short-term fixes that defer insoluble legal and political problems. The result is a form of nonsovereign property that encourages land markets now and offers the possibility of securing land rights later. The disjuncture between the future that land titling promises and the present it creates is entrenching private ownership in the West Bank and, as land speculation threatens to erode Palestinian control over territory, inciting debate about its limits. Land titling is creating a new political temporality in the ruins of state-building, one that illuminates how legacies of colonial law and contemporary practices of land speculation shape loss, hope, and contestation in Palestine and across the global South.

Theatre and Capital Once Again: An Essay on an Informal Archive

Abstract: This essay reviews Theatre Journal articles that examine the intersections of theatre and capital, to highlight the challenge of analyzing neoliberal transformations of global and glocal economies, in particular, the trend to financial speculation to the detriment of investment in public resources, and the impact on theatre and performance. Commentators in the “global” North can better understand the scale of transformation—the concentration of wealth for a few and the loss of public revenue for the precarious majority—by examining strategies deployed by this majority in the South, especially Africa, to deal with extreme inequality exacerbated since the 1990s by structural adjustment and reduced aid from the North. The essay briefly notes a critical response to the impact of capital on performance by an African scholar, and a performative illumination of its US impact by an American practitioner. In the first case, David Donkor’s Spiders of the Market analyzes the glocal pressure of financialization on social welfare and performative practices in Ghana while offering critical insights that apply to increasing inequality in the North. In the second, Paul Durica and Pocket Guide to Hell’s site-responsive reenactments illuminate historic conflicts between U.S. capital and labor from the 1886-7 Haymarket Trial to the 2011 Occupy Movement and attempt to clarify the obscure workings of capital as an economic and cultural force in contemporary Chicago, whose nineteenth-century markets were the first to develop derivatives and other instruments that have spawned financial speculation to the present time.

Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Individual Mortgage Policy and Housing Price Fluctuation in Zhejiang Province -Empirical Analysis Based on SVAR

The eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang is highly developed and contributes to the real estate business. The paper uses quarterly data from 2011 to 2021 to create a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model to explore the empirical dynamics between personal housing credit policies and house price changes in Zhejiang Province, China. Impulse response and variance decomposition research reveal that loan interest rates considerably affect housing values. Interest rates affect property values by 0.85% to 30.19% over time. The initial rise in loan interest rates boosts real estate values, but the successive increase will lower them until stability is reached. Large personal mortgage loans also affect housing prices. Throughout time, the share of factors affecting property prices with respect to mortgage loans ranges from 2.32% to 4.31%. The size of mortgage debt boosts home values. Thus, a corresponding easing of mortgage borrowing ceilings will boost home prices. The causal relationship between GDP and housing price swings is unclear, although its impact is stable with modest variations within a limited range. Zhejiang Province should be cautious when adjusting personal mortgage loans and interest rates while improving regulatory control. These techniques reduce market speculation and negative factors to ensure market stability and longevity.

Leveraged speculators and asset prices

Abstract I test the hypothesis that the use of leverage by market speculators can increase the likelihood and magnitude of crashes in asset prices. Using a direct leverage measure derived from US public filings, I find that (1) stocks held by highly leveraged hedge funds subsequently have more negatively skewed returns than stocks held by less leveraged funds and (2) upon extremely negative earnings surprises or funding liquidity shocks, stocks owned by high-leverage funds exhibit abnormal price declines and subsequent reversal. Consistent with the fire sale and contagion hypothesis, high-leverage funds tend to reduce the position following negative news about a stock, and such selling can extend to other stocks in the portfolio, increasing the crash proneness of the stocks they hold.